 |
| Net Migrants Arrived Minus Prevented in 2024 Source: French Authorities and Home Office and Border Force |
In an exclusive analysis, Southampton Independents can reveal that there have only been just eight weeks since 5th May 2024 where the number of illegal migrants arriving in the UK on small boats has been less than the number prevented from arriving by the French authorities.
This is only eight weeks out of twenty-six, from 5th May 2024 to 27th October 2024.
In every other week, eighteen weeks in total, the number of migrants arriving has exceeded the number of migrants prevented.
The number of migrants arriving is reported by the Home Office and Border Force.
The number of migrants prevented is reported using "operational estimates" provided to the UK Government by French authorities. No prevention figures were available prior to 5th May 2024.
So while the French authorities might be stopping some of the boats, using substantial amounts of UK Government money to do so, other boats are getting through, and as we have reported, the total that have arrived in 2024 now exceeds 30,000.
Prime Minister Starmer has just announced at the Interpol conference in Glasgow that he would be doubling the money given to France to £150 million. So the figures might suggest that it is working, to an extent. There is no doubt that some of the boats are intercepted.
But when the net number of boats is calculated using the same figures, more questions arise.
 |
| Net Boats Arrived Minus Prevented in 2024 Source: French Authorities and Home Office and Border Force |
As you can see in the graph above, it appears that there are only three weeks out of twenty-six that more boats arrive than are prevented.
Which then begs the question, how did we get to over 30,000 migrants arriving if these figures are accurate?
And then we might start to question the figures published by the French authorities, the Home Office and Border Force.
Which then leads to questions of trust, already at low levels on this issue.
Perhaps Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron might be discussing the accuracy of the figures during their meeting in Paris following the Armistice Day commemorations today?
Or perhaps they won't...
And this massive failure of successive governments will continue to undermine our country's, and our City's, security and community cohesion.
